Fox News shoehorns out the goober phrase of the week -- "double-dip recession" -- with Obama, playing macro-economist manqué, suggesting precisely the fiscal policy path that if boldly followed just might indeed insure a second dip.
Here's how Wrong-Way Barry Corrigan, our Lincolnesque POTUS, sees it: If he's to manage the coming great stagnation prudently, a la Goldilocks, that'll require maintaining a careful mid-channel course between the Scylla of too much "red ink" and the Charybdis of too little employment.
"Red ink", Mr President? I thought Uncle Sam can't ever get enough red ink these days. Here's Der Kroogglehorn:
"Overall borrowing by the nonfinancial sector hasn’t risen: the surge in government borrowing has in fact, less than offset a plunge in private borrowing."In fact Uncle oughta get us all swimmin' in red ink. If he don't, we the weebles will flounder in dry-dock misery, our gills gasping in desperation for our lost liquidity. Shucks we may well have 5 million foreclosures headed our way:
"The combined percentage of those in foreclosure as well as delinquent homeowners is 14.41 percent, or about one in seven mortgage holders"That's 7 million homesteads, Mrs Calabash. To be fair, our prez -- like a lover's heart -- has his reasons for this myopic lunacy and that's where the buzz phrase of the week comes to bat. Heeere's Obie:
"Climbing national debt could cause... people [to] lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession.""People"? Like, err, who? Plain vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry people? People like, well, you and me and Sally Sixpack?
Something tells me Dr. Hope had some other kind of people in mind.
So if big bad papa-bear deficits are out, maybe bribes will work, as in
"... tax provisions that can encourage businesses to hire sooner rather than sitting on the sidelines."Ahh, the low comedy of it all. Elephants on Main Street trumpet. The dollar Rexists on Wall Street laugh, and the K Street gang frolic like there's no tomorrow.
And maybe there isn't. I hear the vox populi now: "one term wonder -- one term wonder."
Sarah, my church-supper hot-dish darling, your ascension can't come a moment too soon.
Comments (7)
the villain in this double soap opera
is deficit permahawks
beloved avenging angel
the sudden long bond
rate "spike"
here's a nice piece on rate spike prophecy
the track record the last 30 years is..well
" Usually there are some forecasters who predict that long term US interest rates will spike in the near future. ....The interesting thing is that, so far, they have always been wrong. so far .... 1082 to zero "
and hey it happens to just about all of em every so often
"The vast majority of the forecasters in the sample made such an incorrect prediction of a long term interest rate spike at least once"
i'm happy to think
it's distributed so widely and well
among our
powdered whig crystal ball gazers
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/11/photographing-phantom-invisible-bond.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FHzoh+%28Angry+Bear%29
i imagine the course of their minds
must run to the occasional cathartic cataract
i mean imagine if you scooped every one on "the big one"
then again what if some other fuckin tin pot merlin scoops u !!
every so often this competitive fight/flee type tension must release itself
and i guess they simply
have a sudden panic attack
or a eureka moment
followed in most cases
soon enough when the spike
"she no cometh "
with an implicit
"never mind"
and only implicit
of course
first rule of prophecy
refuse to review your "record"
second rule
after a high profile gaff
hide among
the bull rushes
of conventional wisdom
till it's forgotten
in the on rush of the forecasting herd
Posted by op | November 24, 2009 4:14 PM
Posted on November 24, 2009 16:14
my favorite number tailor mad menzie
has this quick and dirty
long rate predictor
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/debt_and_intere.html
Δ i= change in real rate
Δ π = change in the innflation rate
Δ E(dt+2)= two year later change in uncle debt to gdp ratio
Δ (yt-ytFE)= is expected out put gap
int = foreign purchases of uncle debt
Δ i = Δ π + 0.077 Δ E(dt+2) + 0.280 Δ (yt-ytFE) - 0.574 Δ int
PLUG IN ASSUMPTIONS
knock yourselves out
these are real rate changes here of course
inflation might spike ..eh
right here as we teeter
on the brink of deflation
ya baby straight up
like rocketman
Posted by op | November 24, 2009 4:59 PM
Posted on November 24, 2009 16:59
my favorite assumption
zero net purchases of uncle debt by foreigners
now that ain't dumping of course but it is 300 plus billion in purchases down the spout
still by itself it only lifts the rate 1.3%
say from 5% to 6.3%
hardly a spike
Posted by op | November 24, 2009 5:13 PM
Posted on November 24, 2009 17:13
Hubba, Hubba.
Too bad that's not her real rack. Otherwise, I'd vote for her in a New York Minute. Hell, couldn't be any worse than the lunatics we've got now... and, far more entertaining. Besides, it's not like she's not already my number one fantasy hate-fuck.
I'm thinking of buying a copy of Going Rogue to read on the beach in Mexico next march -- for the sheer cheap laffs, and the piss off my Nation-reading, NPR-donation-mailing DW.
Posted by Mike Flugennock | November 24, 2009 7:38 PM
Posted on November 24, 2009 19:38
Nice Pshop job whoever did it, but she is still eminently doable. She'll surely capture the MILF-lover vote. Hell, even most FILTHs (Father I'm Loath to Hump)might vote for her though they prefer the 18 to 21 set.
Sadly, she serves as a nice distraction for Libs to focus on rather than fulminating on the myriad failings of their Chosen One, so she serves the interests of the elite both out of office and should she ever get in it. But at least in it, she'll perhaps reveal the office for the mockery it is in a way even the snickering chimp couldn't do. Losing what's left of your country's a hard price to pay for that, though.
Posted by Sean | November 25, 2009 1:02 AM
Posted on November 25, 2009 01:02
Y'know, back during the campaign, I used to joke to my pals that I could understand McCain wanting to appeal to the GOP base, except I had no idea that their base had shifted from shrieking religious freaks to frustrated horny old guys.
Distraction she may be for the Liberals, but ever since her nomination for VP was announced, ever since I first saw her on TV, I've found her an endless source of entertainment and good, healthy cheap laffs. The only bigger source of cheap laffs has been watching Liberal America -- represented in our house by my DW -- crapping its drawers in indignation over her.
The way I see it, the longer it takes for Liberal America to realize what an Epic FAIL their Chosen One is, the more spectacular and entertaining the implosion will be. Seriously, man, I'm not shittin' around about the Mayans on this point. Hell, I've got the Jiffy-Pop on the stove right now.
As far as losing "what's left" of our country -- dude, where've you been? It's freakin' gone, man, and it's been gone since at least 1980... and if you ask me, the dissolution and collapse of the USA is the best thing that could happen for the rest of the world. Yee hahh! Popcorn's ready!
Posted by Mike Flugennock | November 25, 2009 10:16 AM
Posted on November 25, 2009 10:16
Lincolnesque? Bite your tongue.
He's tall, he's lanky, he's from Illinois, but that's about it.
Too bad about him not going to the theater, though.
Posted by Mike Flugennock | November 25, 2009 10:23 AM
Posted on November 25, 2009 10:23